What Just Happened?
How to Win in "Rigged" States
As we continue to process the election results, it's essential to hold multiple truths at once. The numbers tell a story of complexity, revealing that winning elections is never the result of a single factor or effort. Rather, it's the culmination of many strategic moves executed correctly, built on a diverse coalition of voters.
In this first issue of “92 County Plan”, we'll delve into the data-driven insights that reveal what happened. We'll explore how Democrats missed connecting with key communities and what this means for future elections. Later, we'll dive deeper into the 'how' – examining specific strategies and tactics that can help build stronger coalitions and drive electoral success especially in Indiana.
Come on a transformative journey with me ~ one that will revitalize voter turnout and inspire positive change across Indiana. Together we can create a brighter future for all Hoosiers.
A look Back on the 2024 Election
On the national level, approximately 19 million voters who cast ballots for Biden in 2020 failed to participate in the 2024 election. (1) This significant drop-off highlights the importance of understanding what drives voter turnout. When asked why they vote, people often respond that they need to be voting for something – a vision, a value, or a leader – rather than simply against someone or something.
“The outcome was due much more to the anti-MAGA majority staying home than either to conversions of 2020 voters, or to substantially more people deciding to embrace Trumpism.”
“Or, as the Wall Street Journal astutely documented, “Collapse in Democratic Turnout Fueled Trump’s Victory.2
Trump did not win a landslide nor does he have a mandate. In the battleground states he only won by 294,632. What happened, you ask?
Trump’s share of eligible votes was the same as it was four years ago. Meanwhile, Harris’s share of electoral voters fell to 31.1 percent - a 3.5 point drop from Biden. (2)
We need to get real as to why voters did not turnout for Harris. And like I stated there are several factors which we will get into but this provides a starting point.
In 2020, Americans were motivated by a desire for social justice and a better path forward out of the COVID-19 pandemic. The tragic death of George Floyd, who was brutally killed under the knee of a police officer, sparked widespread outrage and calls for change. Trump's response to this national crisis was infuriatingly insensitive, tweeting "when the looting starts, the shooting starts" – a reckless and inflammatory statement that only fueled tensions.
In stark contrast, Biden's measured words offered a beacon of hope for a nation seeking unity and healing: "This is no time for incendiary tweets. This is no time to encourage violence." ~ Biden - Years of scapegoating, divisiveness, and racism had finally reached a boiling point, and the American public was clamoring for change. Struggles of the black and brown communities become national talking points.
Vice President Harris narrowly trailed Biden by approximately 294,632 votes in the battleground states, just a point and a half behind Biden's 2020 numbers. However, this close margin belies a more significant issue: Democrats failed to mobilize the base. What happened? During COVID-19, voters were riveted to their screens, hungry for information and connection. They grasped the stark choice before them – racism and social justice versus Trump's divisive agenda – and responded accordingly.
In contrast, Harris faced a more complex national issue in 2024: freedom versus authoritarianism. With most voters only tuning in during the final weeks of the campaign, she had to distill this nuanced message into a clear call to action. Unfortunately, the economy ultimately became the deciding factor, with many voters prioritizing pocketbook issues over the existential threat posed by an authoritarian presidency. In hindsight, some would argue, Democrats may have focused too much on converting Never Trumpers and not enough on the economic concerns that animate their core supporters. I would argue based on her talking points, she did talk about both, yet because of her short runway, 107 days, it was an impossible task to mobilize voters on both issues.
A closer examination of the data reveals a significant gap between Democratic performance and working-class voter support. Democrats struggled to connect with working-class voters amidst a maelstrom of cultural polarization, media fragmentation, and deliberate disinformation. The economy proved a particularly decisive factor, with many voters prioritizing pocketbook issues over other concerns. (More to come on this because we are going to find out very soon that many voters were duped.)
If one group bears responsibility for the Republican victory, it is white males aged 40-55 – a demographic that showed up strongly in support of Trump. Republicans excelled at mobilizing their base, complemented by targeted efforts to sway smaller voting blocs. This strategic approach paid dividends, as Democrats failed to match the GOP's enthusiasm and turnout among key demographics.
As Democrats move forward, we must confront three significant challenges: a tarnished public image, a struggling communication strategy, and a weak media infrastructure. Despite the US economy emerging stronger than any other first-world country post-pandemic, this achievement is rightfully lost on many voters who don't feel its benefits personally. This is especially true for votes who reside in “rigged states”.
To effectively connect with working-class voters, Democrats need to relearn how to discuss politics and economics in a way that resonates beyond policy wonks.
“We need to learn to talk about politics without talking about politics” ~ Anat Shenker-Osorio
We must craft a compelling narrative that speaks to everyday concerns, rather than relying on dry economic data or partisan rhetoric.
Let’s be honest with ourselves, in contrast, the MAGA GOP excels at presenting a unified front, amplifying a consistent message that resonates with their base. This echo chamber effect allows them to shape public opinion and sway undecided voters. And yes, many of them were duped into believing the lies. Billionaires have rigged the system against everyday Americans. I will say it again, the system is not broken, but Billionaires have rigged the system against everyday Americans (More to come on these two points later.) Furthermore, the MAGA GOP offers a simplistic narrative blaming external factors – 'the other' – for individual struggles, providing a convenient scapegoat for life's challenges.
Ultimately, the Democratic Party's permission structure is broken, resulting in a perception problem that undermines our ability to connect with voters. To regain traction, Democrats must develop a more effective messaging strategy, one that acknowledges the complexities of economic anxiety and offers a compelling alternative to the MAGA GOP's divisive rhetoric.
What Happened In Indiana?
Now let’s look at Indiana. The democrats have a perception problem and broken permission structure here too. We too have a democratic base problem. There is a void of leadership and communications. As a result the void is being filled by loud MAGA voices like Micah Bechwith. But, the question we need to ask ourselves, who are we as democrats going to select to fill our new leadership positions across our party infrastructure? (more to come on this BIG question!)
Despite the challenges ahead, I remain optimistic about the future. When you know what obstacles you're facing, you can devise a plan to overcome them. In our case, Indiana Democrats must confront the same glaring issue that has hindered our national performance: our inability to drive out our base with the same enthusiasm as the MAGA GOP. See the numbers below.
This stark contrast is not just a matter of partisan politics; it has real-world consequences for the lives of many Hoosiers. If we fail to address this issue, we risk coming up short once again in 2026, leaving countless individuals and families without the support they need.
Stay tuned for future issues, where I'll continue to explore why Indiana ranks 50th in voter turnout, reflecting a deep crisis in political engagement. This decline is driven by a combination of widespread voter apathy, a lack of candidates running in key races, and structural barriers with the party’s support system. Voters feel powerless in a predominantly “rigged” state, and the absence of candidates running in every district reinforces disengagement. We need to move away from only “prioritizing” only winnable races, leaving many districts uncontested thus further suppressing voter turnout.
To reverse this trend, Indiana needs a bottom-up strategy that recruits, train, and supports candidates in every district while providing clear pathways for disengaged voters to take meaningful action.
Together, through meaningful dialogue and connection, we'll explore some of the root causes of our shortcomings and examine potential solutions to help us better serve the people of Indiana. It’s time to look under the hood and chart a new path forward.
Up Coming Issues…
✅ Gerrymandering & Reverse Gerrymandering - Time to get honest with ourselves.
✅ There is no way we can win the top of the ticket if we continue to leave 30 Indiana House Seats and 10 Senate Seats uncontested. Basically handing power over to the MAGA GOP - let’s give voters a reason to vote!
✅ Have you ever heard folks talk about coalition building? That is why other states are flipping Red to Blue - Example North Caroline just broke their Super Majority this last election cycle!!
✅ Tiffany Stoner should be representing House District 25 - her loss is on us as democrats. How can we learn from our losses?
✅ New Party Leadership - Who should be at the helm?
And so much more!
In the News:
An excite new podcast has launched! Hoosier Health Matters! They focuses on the pressing health policy issues in Indiana and tries to make this stuff not boring. Hosted by Gabriel Bosslet and Tracey Wilkinson, board members of Good Trouble Coalition, this podcast brings together healthcare and public health stakeholders to discuss, educate, and advocate for patient-centered care, public health, and health equity. It will focus on state-level health policies, legislative updates, and expert interviews.
Bill Tracker ➡️ https://www.goodtroubleindiana.org/billtracker-2025
(1) According to VoteCast, 40 percent of the electorate had voted for Biden in 2020. Michael McDonald, the recognized expert, estimates that 154.8 million voted (149 million votes have been counted). That would mean there were 62 million Biden voters who cast ballots and 19 million who didn’t (he received 81 million in 2020).
(2) For additional reading on “How Trump “Won”
Really good analysis. Also remember the GOPs actual voter suppression (purging people from the rolls) and internalized voter suppression (my vote doesn’t make any difference in a world that doesn’t are about me). Can’t wait to see what happens next in Indiana.